Value Betting Explained

A bet has theoretical value when the offered price implies a lower probability than your defensible estimate of the event's true chance.

Price matters

Being right often is not enough. If prices are consistently too short, a high strike rate can still lose money. Conversely, a lower strike rate can be compatible with profit when prices compensate for the risk.

This is why tipster claims should be assessed alongside odds, sample size and staking—not win percentage alone.